An error of less than 2 points (or 1 point) is really good.

 An error of less than 2 points (or 1 point) is really good.

The 2022 state-level polling was also above par. The average miss for gubernatorial elections was about 3 points, while it was less than 2.5 points in US Senate races. The previous average polling miss since 1998 had been above 5 points.

Polling in 2020, of course, consistently showed Biden ahead of Trump. While those polls were too friendly to Biden and Democrats, they accurately showed them winning the election that November.

Multiple surveys since last year have shown Trump ahead of Biden in a potential 2024 election. Some polls also have Biden trailing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Over the entire 2020 campaign, not a single reputable poll found Trump ahead of Biden.

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